There's a fascinating metamorphosis that takes place when someone persists at something for an extended period of their life. They absorb a remarkable level of depth and insight in what they do. It's a peculiar thing that's difficult to quantify, but it's a decided shift that takes place in perspective, and directly translates to ability, when a set of skills ages past a decade. It's a luminosity that ignites in your mind, giving you a 360 degree view of something, an almost omniscient understanding on a particular topic.

When asked what has changed about Tim Duncan's game over the past twelve years of his NBA career, the casual observer would remark that little has changed. As oppose to challenging that observation outright, I'll instead say that “little” is a relative term.

If you ask him, I imagine Duncan could give a lengthy list of ways that his game has changed and improved over twelve seasons. I'm sure the things he would talk about would be nuanced, perceived as minute to those of us who haven't experienced them. It's the perspective and attention to detail that only comes with experience, the ability to take something apart and understand how every tiny piece fits together.

When you think about how Duncan's game has gotten better, or changed, the reason why nothing jumps out is because he's never had to make any sweeping changes to how he plays his position. Instead he's subtly been improving all the things he was always good at. The footwork has gotten even better, the follow through on a jump hook smoother, he's learned to position himself smarter defensively.

A retrospective of Tim Duncan's career invariably has to talk about his consistency. With enough thought and some honest recollection, however, I was able to come up with a few items that highlighted some level of change in his game. They are, of course, vanilla – subtle, but valuable and instrumental nonetheless.

The first item is likely the most noticeable – free-throw shooting. Duncan's free-throw shooting has gone through a weird up-and-down ride throughout his career, but ultimately we can say that it's improved. It started around 66% in his rookie season and had a few spikes in his first few years, including 80% in '01-'02, before taking a dive for a career low .599 in 2004. This year he's at a steady 75%.

While his accuracy at the line can still be suspect, the ability to knock down free-throws has been the all important compliment to his dominant inside game. It balanced him out in a way that no other offensive component could have. He's going to get the ball inside and he's going to get fouled, therefore being able to confidently step to the line and drain a pair is exactly the skill he had to acquire.

Another key component of Duncan's growth has been his improvement as a passer. He needed to be better passer, it was a requirement considering the amount of attention paid to him by defenses. He started off unselfish enough, but occasionally lacking in knowing when and where to let off the ball.

He's gone from being a simple passer out of the post to being a conduit of the offense from the block, able to pass effectively out of double teams and know exactly when and where to capitalize off of what the defense is doing. He's able to make things happen for the offense, simply by touching the ball and then redistributing it back out.

Maybe the biggest development of Duncan as a player has been the toughness he's developed and his capacity for leadership. I think it's a consensus that Tim Duncan is mentally tough and that he always has been. Yet for some time early in his career there was a perception that Duncan was soft. It's important to note that most of that was a misconception. People misinterpreted his quiet demeanor and lack of pomp for a deficiency in toughness.

It is fair to say, however, that some of it was warranted. It was clear that as he developed there was a demonstrativeness that came with experience for Duncan. As his skills developed and his confidence grew he started imposing his will on games, demanding the ball down the stretch and generally becoming able to punish entire teams physically on both ends of the floor. There seemed a willingness to absolutely destroy the opposition that was lacking his first few years.

It was most evident in the 2003 NBA Finals. He played the best series of his life, one of the best ever. Duncan's game six performance put him in the pantheon with Magic, Bird, Russell and Jordan – amongst the greatest ever. It was during that title clinching game when I turned to someone and said, “it's like winning isn't enough – it's like he wants to erase the New Jersey Nets from basketball history.”

That kind of determination and thirst for victory, I don't think was there, or at least not as pronounced in the early part of Duncan's career. Furthermore it's been his ability to become a more demonstrative leader that was perhaps the key to the two subsequent championship runs in 2005 and 2007. Another area of his game that was once questioned, it's clear Duncan is one of the finest captains a team could want.

Duncan has without a doubt been a model of consistency, but it's a mistake to think he hasn't grown and developed. He built a game that is cemented in fundamentals and not hinged on athleticism or strength. That's given him the ability to have a long, steady career, one that will likely carry on for some time. The same commitment and work ethic that brought him into the league with a fulling developed, All-Star level game is the same one that has kept him on top of the league and also what's made him able to refine the edges of his game.

For me Tim Duncan is the epitome of self improvement. He's a testament to determined growth and an example for anyone who has ever wanted to get good at anything. Even while at the top of his profession he has continued working to get better.

Without question, we have watched one of the finest basketball players to ever live. We shouldn't let ourselves overlook the mantra that helped guide him:

Good, Better, Best. Never let it rest

Until your Good is Better, and your Better is your Best”

- Tim Duncan

Both teams without one of their marquee names, the Tony Parker-less San Antonio Spurs

(27-19) showed little signs of life against the Carmelo Anthony-less Denver Nuggets (32-15) in a nationally-televised showdown Sunday afternoon at the AT&T Center.

After wins against Atlanta and Memphis, the Western Conference fifth-ranked Spurs were set to end their six-game home stand on a short winning streak, but that ended abruptly as the second-ranked Nuggets had their say on the court.

Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, Tim Duncan, George Hill and Roger Mason Jr. started off for San Antonio with first possession. Jefferson made the basket for the Spurs, scoring seven points in the first quarter alone with the first three-point shot of the game. A rousing round of keep-away broke out between Hill and Denver’s Chauncey Billups near the end of the quarter before Duncan and Ginobili stepped in to bolster the Spurs’ offense.

Billups and Martin led the Nuggets in controlling the game for most of the quarter; Denver held the lead three times before San Antonio was able to come out on top, thanks to a three-pointer at the top of the arc from Matt Bonner with 1:50 on the clock. Ginobili made a fast break to score in the last thirty seconds of the quarter, but was fouled by Martin and sent to the line, completing 1-of-2 free throws. The Spurs ended the first quarter with a 2-point lead over the Nuggets, 23-21.

Turnover-plagued Denver gave San Antonio a chance to add to its lead as DeJuan Blair came off the bench, scoring two baskets in the first minute and a half of the second. Newly-recovered Michael Finley made his debut on the court in the first quarter, but made no scoring contribution and returned to the bench after several minutes’ playing time in the second quarter. Blair continued to be a force on the court, defending heavily against Nene before turning around to score for a five-point lead.

San Antonio went into some serious offensive work halfway through the quarter, recovering quickly from missed shots and passing the ball efficiently. After a Denver basket to gain the lead, the Spurs came back as Jefferson scored and Hill turned a fast break basket into a three-point play after being fouled. Duncan added another two points to the board with free throws, while Ginobili made a three-point jumper to give the Spurs an eight point edge - their biggest lead of the game before the half.

The Spurs showed signs of trouble as J.R. Smith went on a scoring spree, leading Denver into a 12-0 run that went unanswered by San Antonio. The Nuggets recovered from their poor showing earlier in the quarter to develop a four-point lead going into halftime, 45-41, over San Antonio. The Spurs shot for 37 percent in the first half, making 3-of-11 three-point field goals and nine second-chance points.
Duncan was able to give the Spurs a little help from free throws, but Denver continued to dominate with as much as a ten-point lead for the first two and half minutes of the third until Hill, McDyess and Jefferson made consecutive baskets. San Antonio managed to overcome the Nuggets’ intense power and eventually became locked in battle for the lead, which changed six times in a two-minute span halfway through the quarter. The Nuggets eventually won out, but the Spurs remained close behind as McDyess, Ginobili and Hill tried to answer each Denver basket yet fell short, 75-68 at the end of the quarter.

Inaccurate shooting caused the fourth quarter to become more difficult than necessary for the Spurs. McDyess, who scored all 13 of his points in the second half, narrowed Denver’s lead to two points with back-to-back baskets with under four minutes to go. San Antonio was unable to regain the lead as Billups and Martin consistently scored for Denver. Duncan made the Spurs’ final basket just before Martin scored six of the Nuggets’ final eight points in the last minute and a half of the game to finalize the win over San Antonio, 103-89.

A glance at the statistics proves Sunday was not the Spurs’ best as Hill led the team in scoring with 17 points, followed by Duncan and McDyess with 16 and 13 points respectively. Duncan had 10 rebounds, while Ginobili and Jefferson each had five. In addition to their 34-of-79 shooting, San Antonio struggled with three-point shots the entire game, finishing with just 3-of-17 completions. The team had 33 rebounds, nine of which were offensive.

With the San Antonio Stock Show and Rodeo in town, the Spurs begin their annual eight-game road trip against the Sacramento Kings (16-30) on Wednesday night.

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The block. It's pretty much a simple act. Prevent the opposing player from scoring the basket. But even in its simplicity, it takes so much to get done. Timing, agility, anticipation and strength. Once done, it can demoralize a player. Not to mention it might make it on a highlight reel.

Manu Ginobili has made some spectacular plays for the Spurs since joining the team. On the offensive end he has had rim-rocking dunks, timely three-pointers, and buzzer-beating shots! He also gets it done on the defensive end.

Recently, he made a spectacular block on Oklahoma City Thunder Kevin Durant. The block made those in the AT&T Center get up off their seats and those watching on TV to get up off their couch.

However, last season he had another amazing block on Miami Heat's Dwyane Wade. Just as spectacular as the block he made on Durant.

But which block was better? Here are both blocks and you decide.

Manu Blocks Dwayne Wade

Dwayne Wade is perhaps one of the most dynamic players in the NBA. Young, explosive, and can get to the rim almost at will.  But don't tell that to Manu!

Manu Blocks Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant is a flat out scoring machine. Able to hit the jumper from anywhere on the court. With him listed at 6'9" and his insane wingspan, he can definitely finish with a strong dunk. On this night, Manu didn't seem to factor all that in and got a crushing block on Durant.

You have to appreciate Durant's good sportsmanship. Even he knew it was a great block.

Both blocks have similar characteristics. Manu comes from the outside and closes in on the player as they go up with the shot. He perfectly times both and catches them right at the rim.

However, only one can be the best Manu block. Leave your comments and go vote on the poll. Which block was better?

• NBA.COM - Spurs Midseason Report
• NBA D-League - Malik Hairston is playing very well for the Austin Toros being named NBA D-League Performer of the Week, should the Spurs bring him back to San Antonio?
• ESPN - Josh Whitling discussed about NBA players that are helpful in multiple categories and says that George Hill's value will increase while Tony is out.
• San Antonio Express News - Coach Pop offers a simple solution to the Spurs' struggles.
• 48 Minutes of Hell - Timothy Varner thinks that another possible lock out season might not be good for the Spurs.
• Hoopsworld - Luke Byrnes takes a look at NBA players that give their respective teams the best bang for the buck. Unsurprisingly, DeJuan Blair made it to the list.
• San Antonio Express News - Jeff McDonald tells us that Antonio McDyess is finding his comfort zone. I hope Dice continues to get better as the season goes on.
• Pounding the Rock - Tim C. on trade speculations involving Richard Jefferson.
• San Antonio Express News - Mike Monroe gave us an update about Tony Parker's recent injury and thankfully it's not a serious one.
• Ball Don't Lie - Adrian Wojnarowski & Marc J. Spears played the spoilers role as they revealed the All-Star reserves.
• Bleacher Report - Sean Stancill says that DeJuan Blair and Taj Gibson continues to shine for their respective teams. I certainly agree.
• San Antonio Express News - Jeff McDonald talked about George Hill's blossoming career with the Spurs.
• 48 Minutes of Hell - Timothy Varner looks at Tim Duncan as an artist. Good Read.
• Hoopsworld - The Spurs knew that Curtis Jerrells has talent, Alex Kennedy reports about how Jerrells is learning in Austin.
• Pounding the Rock - LasEspuelas looks at how Manu, Bogans, Jefferson, and Hill affects the Spurs' game pace and find out something unexpected.
• San Antonio Express News - Buck Harvey tells us that Popovich likes what he sees in Jefferson. Maybe we have to be a little more patient with RJ.

By Emily Allen, Staff Writer Project Spurs

The memory of a 92-86 loss in Memphis less than two weeks ago still fresh in their minds, the San Antonio Spurs (27-18) were ready to beat the Memphis Grizzlies (25-20) on home court at the AT&T Center on Friday evening. The Spurs lost Tony Parker to a sprained ankle during Wednesday’s game against Atlanta, so it was up to George Hill to fill the void left by scoring-machine Parker.

With Hill, Richard Jefferson, Keith Bogans, Antonio McDyess and Tim Duncan all starting, San Antonio started off the game down five to nothing as Memphis worked quickly in the first minute and a half of regulation. The Spurs recoiled quickly as Richard Jefferson put the first San Antonio points of the evening on the board with a 2 point jumper.

The first quarter quickly became the Jefferson and Hill Show, with McDyess and Duncan playing faithful sidekicks. Halfway through the quarter, Bogans made his only scoring contribution of the night: a perfect three-point shot from the corner, bringing the Spurs up 15-11 over Memphis. San Antonio was able to maintain its early lead by as much as nine points thanks to additional baskets by Ginobili and Mason late in the quarter.

The second quarter started off well for San Antonio as Matt Bonner made the first basket, a 3-point jumper (his only scoring contribution of the night as well) that put the Spurs up over the Grizzlies by ten points. Memphis came back to narrow San Antonio’s lead, but intense plays by DeJuan Blair and Hill (with a little help from Jefferson) during a literal down-the-court-and-back run in under 20 seconds stunned the Grizzlies and brought the Spurs back to an 8-point lead.

Memphis was far from content to let the Spurs maintain dominance and let them know in the last minutes of the first half as they answered San Antonio nearly point-for-point, limiting the Spurs to a two-point lead. Duncan worked vigorously, scoring six points in the final three and a half minutes of the second quarter, allowing the Spurs to enter the locker room with a 53-50 lead at the half.

With help from Jefferson, Duncan continued to keep the Spurs in the lead by dominating at the beginning of the third. Still determined to fight back hard, the Grizzlies came back to keep themselves in the game with small scoring bursts but could not find the power to overcome the Spurs on both sides of the ball. Ginobili stepped up to help give San Antonio big leads several times in the third quarter. San Antonio was able to score 24 total points in the quarter; 15 of those from Ginobili and Duncan.

The Grizzlies matched the Spurs entirely point for point in the fourth quarter, each team with 27 points apiece, but could not make up for minor struggles late in the game that gave San Antonio an advantage. Mason was a huge contributor in the final twelve minutes of the game, highlighted by back-to-back three-pointers, putting the Spurs back into an 11-point lead with under seven minutes to go. Just five minutes later, McDyess reached his third straight double-digit scoring game with a basket to bring the Spurs up to a 100-90 lead.

A little additional energy in their play all night thanks to a win over the Hawks, the Spurs go on to win against the Grizzlies, 104-97. Shooting 48.3 percent, the Spurs had a fairly decent night making 8-of-19 3-pt field goals. 44 points were scored in the paint and they had 38 rebounds, 13 of which were offensive.

Duncan led the team in scoring with 19 points and grabbed 9 rebounds.  Congratulations to Duncan as in this game he reached 11, 000 rebounds for his career! Duncan was followed closely by Hill’s 18 points and Mason’s 17-point contribution. Blair had 10 rebounds, Duncan had 9 and McDyess ended the game with 8. For the first time since Dec. 5, Michael Finley was listed as active but spent the game on the bench.

Two consecutive wins in hand, the Spurs have a chance to continue a winning streak with a noon tipoff at the AT&T Center on Sunday against the Denver Nuggets. Coming off their own 17-point loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in a Friday night game, San Antonio can expect Denver to be seeking three R’s: a recovery, redemption, and revenge.

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What happens when two bloggers from opposing teams, rivals even, get together to discuss a rumored trade?

Greatness happens.

But this isn't your typically overused NBA commercial. I got together with Greg Esposito, the Sr. Content Director at Fanster and huge Suns fan. We wanted to try to imagine what the exchange would be like between R.C. Buford and Steve Kerr in negotiating a trade for Amare Stoudemire.

Michael De Leon (as R.C. Buford): So obviously the Spurs are going more and more away from being a defensive-oriented team. With that in mind, the Suns seem to come up first as possible trade partners. DeJuan Blair is great but he isn't a center. So, how about a truly athletic big man like Amare. He's obviously gifted on the offensive end and he won't waste much effort on the defensive end. So which player or players on the Spurs' end would we have to give up to get a player like Amare?

Greg Esposito (as Steve Kerr): You, the San Antonio Spurs, want Amare Stoudemire? You can have him when you pry him from our cold dead hands. Or in exchange for cap relief, draft picks and a young talent (and we use that term loosely). I'd love to play hardball but I think our situation is pretty obvious. Amare can walk and we aren't willing/don't have the cash to give him the max.

Wow me with an offer that fits those perameters because, honestly, talking about a trade with you is like Obi Wan Kanobi talking with Darth Vader about trading Luke Skywalker to the dark side for a few new light sabers and a storm trooper to be named later.

MD: Yes, but a few years ago that Storm Trooper to be named later could have been the draft rights to DeJuan Blair. There is the matter of the $17 million Amare makes a year. Since Richard Jefferson seems to be a bust of a signing and the Suns apparently love overpaying for underperforming talent (Shaq) why not send him over to Phoenix. He already shows no effort on the defensive end of the floor so he'd fit in perfectly in Planet Orange. So how about Jefferson and the rights to Viktor Sanikidze. We can get it into the sim league office today. Let me know what you think and then I'll give you a ring back...wait, this is Phoenix, land of no rings. What do your phone's do?

GE: Funny thing happens, every time the phone looks like it's going to ring in Phoenix some guy in a black and silver shirt with a 5 on the back throws it into the table and busts it up. Damnedest thing. So let's just stick to email.

Right now we don't need any additional overpaid busts. Jason Richardson is holding down that spot on the roster. By the way, do you have any interest in an Amare Stoudamire-Jason Richardson package? We'd love to give you both of them. How about Jeferson, Ginobli and Blair for Amare and J-Rich?

We trade busts, a fresh start could do wonders for both. Our medical staff can rejuvenate DeJuan Blair's knees and make him a nice replacement for Stoudemire. You get new "twin towers" and keep the championship window open. We can put Ginobli out in front of the arena and use him like one of those cars high school students mash at homecoming. Sounds like a win-win for everybody and I checked the numbers and it works.

MD: No deal. DeJuan Blair is untouchable right now. We really have no need for Richardson either since we already have Manu, Mason and George Hill. Back to Stoudemire. I'm hearing in the press you may want a draft pick, an expiring contract and another player. So how about you reunite Michael Finley with Steve Nash, we'll throw in a future draft pick and you can take your pick from either Jefferson or Manu?

GE: Sure, the press has said that. The problem is, if I send you Stoudemire, any draft pick I get in return will be a late first rounder. If I'm going to hand you a title, I want to do it in a way that I don't look like the next Chris Wallace. Especially since I know Mitch Kupchak and you sir are no Mitch Kupchak. That man could charm the pants off a horse, or at least a subpar NBA GM.

Here's my offer, I'll agree to a deal including Manu, Finley, Boner, getting my #25 jersey retired, shared custody of the Alamo and the 2007 championship banner. No draft pick needed if you agree that I can have 24 hours with Stoudemire and you agree to wave his physical (I need to practice my Three Stooges moves).

I'm even willing to throw in an autographed copy of Paul Shirley's updated book "Can I Keep My Jersey in Exchanged for My Common Sense?", an autographed copy of Barkley hitting the game winning jumper over David Robinson in game six of the 1993 playoffs, we'll remove any record of Mario Elie or Robert Horry ever playing here (you can have them both) and, the best part of it all, a copy of our 2010 cheerleader calendar.

Let me know...

MD: It all sounded great until the shared custody of the Alamo and the 2007 banner. I'm fine with retiring your jersey. After all, they retired Avery Johnsons. I've had Shirley's book on my Amazon wishlist for some time now and that calendar would go to some good use, but I have some other options in mind. How about Matt Bonner and Michael Finley, the Silver Dancers and Belinda Snell for Jared Dudley, the Suns Dancers, Cappie Pondexter and that Shirley book. Oh and we'll let your entire team have a two practices a year in the AT&T Center so they'll know what those banners that hang up in arenas are for.

GE: An enticing offer, but I'd have a tough time parting with the dancers. I'll tell you what, I've got Pat Reily on the other line and he's offering a time share in South Beach, some hair gel, Jermaine O'Neal, a first and a certified letter that officially removes the Shaq deal from the record books. I just think that combination will do more to make me popular with the fans here in Phoenix than what we're discussing.

I'll give you a call back if it falls through. If we can't do a deal for Amare, maybe we can send you Jarron Collins in exchange for that retired number.

MD: Keep Collins. Send us one Suns Dancer that we'll keep the AT&T Center cameras on and use in all of our promo material and your number is as good as retired. We'll put together a ceremony and everything. Of course if Roger Mason hitting the Xmas day shot comes on or Tim Duncan hitting the 3 video comes on the jumbotron, that's out of my control. We'll make you feel like a champion again, because that's not likely to happen in Phoenix. All I need is your signature, and I'll see if we can get this up to the league office before closing time today.

GE: Done deal. The fax is on it's way.

Thanks to Greg for reaching out to me and agreeing to do this. Sure, he's a Suns fan, but don't be too hard on him. He was born that way. Make sure to read his latest on Fanster and you can follow him on twitter as well.

I got a chance to speak with Chip Crain of 3 Shades of Blue to preview tonight's Spurs vs. Grizzlies game. You can also see his game preview here.

1. The Grizzlies used to be a team you looked at on the upcoming schedule and count as a win. As the Spurs found out recently, overlooking them is a mistake. Do you see the Grizzlies surprising the Spurs again?

I hate to predict individual games but I think the Grizzlies have as good a chance as they ever have had to get out of San Antonio with a victory. First the Grizzlies are playing the best basketball the team has ever played before. Zach Randolph is an All-Star, Marc Gasol had to receive some consideration at the Center position and Rudy Gay at small forward make the Grizzlies front line as formidable as any in the league. O J Mayo is becoming a well rounded player in the league capable of scoring 30 or more points and also getting double figure assists on any given night. A rare accomplishment for a SG. The Grizzlies one weakness is Point Guard and even at that position the Grizzlies are improving as Mike Conley is becoming a much better floor general and scorer.

Perhaps the reason I am most hopeful in tonight's game is the general poor condition of the Spurs however. Tony Parker is out for this game. Richard Jefferson has struggled all season with back issues. TIm Duncan, while still one of my favorite players in the league, has been showing some effects of his long career in the league and the center position seems unsettled right now as is the SG role. Until Michael Finley returns, Parker is healthy and someone is decided on as the full time starting center San Antonio is not the team they are capable of being. That bodes well for the Grizzlies.

The problem is that despite these issues San Antonio has a deep and talented bench. Memphis' bench consists of a player who has been out of the league for a year and a half and who missed training camp plus 3 rookies. Each of the rookies is capable of having a good game but none can be counted on to produce in every game. It's just the nature of rookies in the NBA and the dreaded rookie wall is looming as well.

Can the Grizzlies win? Absolutely but I can't say I expect the Spurs to fall twice in a row to the Grizzlies.

2. With 48 games under their belts this season, what is your mini review of the Grizzlies at midseason? Have they met or past expectations and why?

I think anyone who doesn't admit the Grizzlies have surpassed expectations is fooling themselves. First, the team is in 7th place in the Western Conference and 3rd place in the division. Who could have suspected such an outcome from a team that won 24 games last season in total and only added three rookies from what was perceived to be a weak draft and a player who was cast out of the last three cities he played in? However I was optimistic about this team heading into the season.

The most important thing to remember when reviewing the Grizzlies first half and comparing it to the pre-season predictions are a few noticeable absences from expectations which have helped bolster the team. First is the absence of Allen Iverson. While a huge fan favorite, Allen Iverson was a terrible fit in Memphis. His actions almost from the start were a distraction to a young team needing leadership . Iverson come into camp out of shape. When he got healthy he immediately demanded to start despite doing nothing to earn the position. He then left the team after three games played and continued to cause distractions while away from the team. The slow start can be directly attributable to his actions. However his actions had a peculiar effect on the team. Instead of destroying the psyche of the team it actually emboldened it. The players gathered behind the coach and themselves and decided to bond together as a group against all outside distractions. In many ways Iverson's actions forced the team to grow up and trust one another.

This brought in the second surprise. Zach Randolph became a leader. Faced with a team desperate for veteran leadership Zach stood up and became the player so many people thought he would never become. Randolph was not the focal point of the team those first nine games but became the focus with hard work and discipline, two traits previously unseen in his actions. Perhaps he finally matured or perhaps he was forced into the role but whatever the reason Randolph stopped taking so many bad shots, became a team player instead of an individual and put the team on his back by showing them how to be a professional and give effort every moment on the court regardless of the situation. No one could have suspected that Randolph, who has fought with teammates in Portland, opponents in LA and the public everywhere he has played would suddenly mature into a team leader who has been nothing but a model citizen in Memphis.

The final absence from expectations has been the team's health. The Grizzlies starting five is their strength and so far they have been fortunate to avoid any long term injuries. That has not been the case in the past. Mike Conley missed time in both of his first two seasons with varied injuries. O J Mayo, Marc Gasol and Rudy Gay have been healthy in their careers but have logged a ton of minutes. Zach Randolph has been injury prone his entire career. Can the team's core players remain healthy all season? What will happen if Randolph, Gasol or Gay miss significant time? A fully healthy team was not expected and that has helped the team tremendously in their development as a unit.

So the team has outperformed expectations because of the absence of Allen Iverson's attitude, Zach Randolph's immaturity and any long term injuries. It is difficult to say which has been more important to the development of the team. It is not unreasonable to say that all of these absences have had a huge impact on the success of the team.

3. Zach Randolph was key in the last win against the Spurs. Halfway through his first season in Memphis, how would you rate his performance and do you think he's found a home in Memphis?

Rating Zach's performance is easy. He has been everything the front office hoped for and more. The only player in the Western Conference currently averaging 20 pts and 10 rebounds a game, Randolph has elevated himself into a premier player in the NBA rivaling Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki and Pau Gasol as the premier power forwards in the league. He has taken the young players under his wing by setting examples on the court and providing leadership and tutoring off it. It isn't difficult to say that he has been the most valuable player on his team in the league this year. The Grizzlies would never be contending in the West if not for Randolph's leadership. It is difficult to say that Randolph's new found maturity will last. After all it has only been 44 games. However I do believe Randolph is a different player now. I had the good fortune of meeting Randolph at the airport when he arrived in Memphis and right away I saw a player in excellent shape and with a different attitude than I expected. Randolph told me then that he wanted to be a different player. He wanted to put behind him his sordid past and reputation and start fresh. He obviously succeeded so far. Will this continue to be the case? We can only hope so. Memphis is a far different city than New York or LA but it's not that different from Portland where his career began. Obviously Memphis hopes that the new Randolph will continue to lead the team in the future. He is contractually bound to Memphis until the summer of 2011 so he will have time to really put down roots in Memphis.

The other problem is Memphis is a small town. Their owner is conscious of the bottom line and with younger players like Mayo, Gay and Gasol needing to be locked up long term over the next 18 months will there be enough money available to keep Randolph, who will be approaching 30 when his contract is do to expire, in Memphis? 4. Last game, Memphis' defenders found a way to limit Richard Jefferson to just 3 points/ With Tony Parker pout and Jefferson likely to get more touches, what will Memphis do to try to make him a non-factor again. Jefferson wasn't shut down as much as he didn't work to get the ball. He didn't seem able to or wanting to be involved. It may be his back or it could have been just a general off night. One thing is certain. It wasn't Rudy Gay's suffocating defense. Rudy will force Jefferson to play a lot on defense. How that effects his offense will have to be seen. I don't expect Jefferson to be held to three points again but he may struggle to stop Rudy and still make an impact on the offensive end.

Jefferson has been a major enigma to me this season. I thought his acquisition would put the Spurs in contention with the Lakers for the conference crown. I thought his game would fit in perfectly with the Spurs. However he has struggled to find his role on the team and the continued petty injuries has slowed that development down. The Spurs need Jefferson to be a viable offensive force to return to the top of the conference especially considering Manu's age and Parkers foot problems. Can he do this? I don't know. He hasn't been the same player since Jason Kidd stopped passing him the ball. Perhaps he is one of those players that looked better than he was because his point guard was so great. I didn't think so but his production seems to imply that.

5. What is your key matchup of the game? Who wins that and what is your prediction for the game?

Well naturally Duncan-Randolph is the premier matchup of the game, Jefferson-Gay should create highlight film dunks, Mayo and Manu some beautiful plays but to me the KEY matchup will be George Hill and Mike Conley. Hardly front page news but Conley needs to dominate Hill for the Grizzlies to have a chance. If Hill comes in and outplays Conley then the Spurs veterans plus the hometown crowd will make it extremely difficult for the Grizzlies to steal a win.

Hill is another late round gem plucked by the Spurs. He has good size for a PG as I stated in my pre-game report. He's not too tall to struggle with smaller, faster PG's and not too small to be a defensive liability against bigger PG's looking to post him up. He has a nice shot and looks very composed with the ball. I think he will be a handful for Conley to contain. However, the Grizzlies front line will require Hill to double down often and that should give Conley some nice looks on the perimeter and some lanes to penetrate. Conley is the best 3 pt shooter in the league for January and is among the best shooters in the league overall. His shooting has made it difficult for teams to ignore him and that helps the front line operate. If Conley can use his speed to harass Hill into mistakes and is hitting his outside shot then Memphis will have a distinct advantage at this very important position.

That's asking a lot but that is why they play the game.

In our live pre-game show before last night's Spurs vs. Hawks game, Michael and Jeff brought in special guest Lang Whitaker, executive editor of SLAM Magazine, to help preview the game.

The Hawks were coming into the game on a 3-game winning stream while the Spurs had dropped the last three games.

We looked over matchups from Tim Duncan vs. Al Horford to Tony Parker vs. Mike Bibby and Lang even commented on what might be the biggest surprise to Spurs fans.

We also took your calls and made our predictions for the game.

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Look for the recorded audio of our postgame show to be posted tonight.

The Amare Stoudemire to Spurs discussions set a firestorm not only here at Project Spurs but across the NBA nation. Though highly unlikely the Suns would ship a high-caliber player like Amare to the Spurs, our friends at AccuScore.com wrote Project Spurs an article on the impact Amare would have on the Spurs. Seems it wouldn't be much.  Please leave us your comments on this analysis.

AccuScore simulates every game 10,000 times one play at a time to generate a forecasted winning percentage and a full range of projected player statistics.  We also can use our simulation technology to evaluate the impact of different trade scenarios.  The analysis below shows how a trade of Amare Stoudemire for the Spurs’ Manu Ginobili and Richard Jefferson would impact both teams this season.

The San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns are currently #6 and #8 in the Western Conference playoff standings.  Both teams are disappointed in their current position.  The Spurs were hoping the acquisition of Richard Jefferson combined with a healthy Manu Ginobili would put them in position to win the Southwest and compete with the Lakers as Western Conference champs.  They are currently 4 games behind Dallas and 8 games behind the Lakers.  The Suns started the season surprisingly well but they have won just 3 of their last 10 and it is very unlikely that this current roster will be able to rise above the #6 spot in the West.  More importantly, they are not willing to re-sign Amare Stoudemire in the off-season for a max deal.

 

BASELINE WESTERN CONFERENCE SEASON FOREAST

As of January 27, AccuScore projects the Spurs to finish 4^th in the West with their current roster and Phoenix 6^th.  This is based on 10,000 season simulations and the Spurs averaged 47.7 wins and made the playoffs 81.2% of the time.  The Suns averaged 46.2 wins and made the playoffs 74.2% of the time.  While this forecast is fairly positive given their current standings, the difference between the #4 Spurs and the #9 Thunder is just 3.3 projected wins while the difference between the Spurs #4 and the Nuggets #3 is a full 4.4 wins.  In other words, San Antonio is closer to slipping out of the playoffs than they are of catching the Nuggets.

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE	WIN	LOSS	PLAYOFF
LA Lakers	59.4	22.6	100.0%
Dallas Mavericks	53.5	28.5	98.9%
Denver Nuggets	52.1	29.9	97.1%
San Antonio Spurs	47.7	34.3	81.2%
Utah Jazz	47.2	34.8	79.3%
Phoenix Suns	46.2	35.8	74.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	45.1	36.9	64.8%
New Orleans Hornets	44.4	37.6	59.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	44.4	37.6	58.0%
Houston Rockets	42.4	39.6	42.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	42.4	39.6	40.9%
LA Clippers	36.4	45.6	5.2%
Sacramento Kings	29.6	52.4	0.1%
Golden State Warriors	27.7	54.3	0.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	18.8	63.3	0.0%

 

STOUDEMIRE FOR GINOBILI AND JEFFERSON

When the Spurs acquired Richard Jefferson AccuScore reported that the acquisition would only help San Antonio if Jefferson was capable of rebounding as well as he did early in his career with the Nets. He is averaging a paltry 3.6 rebounds in nearly 31 minutes which is a career low.  With Jefferson not being a valuable rebounder or defensive force he really does not help the Spurs.  He is an OK three point shooter, a poor free throw shooter (just 70% this year) and just not that valuable a player.  When Ginobili is playing well he looks like a Top 15 player, but his overall statistics are not those of a superstar player.  He is currently shooting under 40% from the field and just 36% from the three point line.

While Amare Stoudemire is not a great defender or a great rebounder capable of anchoring a defense, he would be a great complimentary defender and rebounder playing alongside Tim Duncan. Stoudemire is a dominant offensive player who should still put up big stats, even if Steve Nash is not his PG.

 

STOUDEMIRE TRADE	WIN	LOSS	PLAYOFF
LA Lakers	59.2	22.8	100.0%
Dallas Mavericks	53.6	28.4	99.1%
Denver Nuggets	52.2	29.8	97.6%
San Antonio Spurs	48.9	33.1	88.4%
Utah Jazz	47.1	34.9	78.7%
Phoenix Suns	45.6	36.5	69.0%

 

Stoudemire’s average impact is +1.2 more wins over the remaining 39 games which translates to a +3.1% difference per game.  Come playoff time, improving your chances by +3.1% in a close game can make a significant impact. A +3.1% impact translates to roughly +1 points in the Spurs’ average margin of victory.

 

Even if acquiring Stoudemire does not immediately vault the Spurs into the upper echelon of the league, his presence definitely improves the Spurs in 2010. Stoudemire is younger than Ginobili and Jefferson, and he is a star player whom the Spurs can continue to build around as Tim Duncan gets older. The Suns’ forecast is down just 0.7 wins.  Even though the team would have no low post scorer it appears that Ginobili and Jefferson could fit in with the up-tempo perimeter-oriented Suns offense, and help keep them competitive.